Thursday, March 27, 2014

Are you ready to ruuuuuuummmmmmble?

World War 3 Main Events:

  
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Thursday, 27 March 2014 05:41
March 27, 2014 -- (TRN) -- For those of you who have been blissfully unaware, World War 3 is at our doorstep and when the fighting breaks out, the match-ups appear to be:  Russia v. EU-NATO / China v. Japan /  Turkey v. Syria / Israel v. Iran / North Korea v. South Korea / Pakistan v. India.

Fighting will break out within a few days when Russia sends troops into Ukraine. It will be a massive invasion with Russian troops and heavy armor coming from the east, across the Russian border into eastern and southeastern Ukraine, with Russian artillery and ground troops moving north from Crimea into southern and southwestern Ukraine, and Russian attack helicopters moving into northern Ukraine, from Belarus.  We expect the Capitol of Ukraine, Kiev, to fall within hours.

When this happens, the European Union and NATO will do: nothing.  They will do nothing for three reasons: 1) They do not have the stomach for a fight, AND; 2) Ukraine isn't worth fighting over, AND; 3) Russian power is insurmountable so close to its homeland, unless someone decides to go nuclear, which no one will do -- at least initially.

NEXT: The Baltics and POLAND


Once Ukraine is done, the real trouble starts.  Will Russia seek to re-conquer the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia?  They were formerly part of the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and it seems that Russian President Putin is looking to re-establish that empire.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are members of NATO and if Russia invades, NATO would be obligated by Treaty to come to their defense.

Poland, another NATO member, which suffered under the yoke of USSR Communism for years, is already calling-up reserve troops.  On March 22, the Pentagon sent a dozen F-16 fighters and 300 troops to Poland to reinforce U.S. commitment to defending its allies in Eastern Europe.


The expanded U.S. deployment is the largest on the territory of a NATO ally since the Ukraine crisis began last month, sparking fears of a broader regional conflict.


The U.S. military move in Poland, which has been under discussion with officials in Warsaw since last week, is a “deliberate choice to demonstrate to our allies that U.S. commitments to our collective defense responsibilities are credible and remain in force,” said Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman.

Last week Poland also began deploying heavy armor and tanks to its eastern Border.  They see the writing on the wall and do not want to be conquered again.  The video below shows some of the armor being moved in Poland.




CHINA v. JAPAN / TAIWAN
A real fight has been brewing between China and Japan over a tiny pair of Islands.  Japan calls them the Senkaku Islands. The islands themselves seem of little value but beneath the islands are vast reserves of natural gas.   By claiming the islands, Japan naturally enjoys sovereignty over 12 miles of ocean all around the islands and that's where the gas is.  The map below pinpoints the islands at the Pink marker labelled "A"

China says it has a long history of ownership over those Islands, they even have a different name for them, referring to them as Diaoyudao Islands.  Yet China has remained relatively quiet about such claim since World War 2.  Lately, however, China has begun asserting a claim and sending its naval and air forces to patrol near the islands.

Japan has dispatched its naval forces to patrol the area around the islands and on more than one occasion, Japan scrambled fighter jets to warn-off Chinese aircraft flying toward the islands.

Two weeks ago, China instructed its military, "fight if you need to fight" with regard to confrontations with Japan around the islands.  Expect the issue to be settled swiftly and by force as all hell breaks out in the coming weeks. The trouble is, the United States has a Treaty to defend Japan if it is attacked.  Any effort by China to take the Islands, could necessitate a US response, putting the US and China in conflict.

TAIWAN

Taiwan is a special kind of thorn in the side of China.  After the Communist revolution took over the mainland, renaming it "The People's Republic of China (PRC)" what was left of the democratically elected government fled to Taiwan and formed their own country which they call "Republic of China (ROC).  Naturally, having a tiny little bastion of Democracy just 100 miles off the coast of the largest Communist nation on earth doesn't sit well with the Communists, but they've put up with it for decades because of US strength.  That strength may now be challenged if circumstances allow.

If the US gets bogged-down in a NATO operation to defend Europe from Russia, China is likely to move against the Senkaku Islands, which would require the US to aid Japan, but then China could also move against Taiwan, requiring still more US force to honor Treaty obligations there.

Suddenly, the US is spread quite thin, and this over-commitment by the US would leave us weaker on all fronts, perhaps leading to our defeat on all fronts.  That's what happens when you bite off more than you can chew.

TURKEY v. SYRIA

The civil war in Syria is a huge mess and there have been skirmishes between opposing sides along the Syrian border with Turkey.   Since the regime of Bashir Assad is not Muslim, Turkey has been not-so-quietly siding with the rebels who are Muslims.  

This escalated two days ago when Turkey sent tanks into Syria and began attacking Syrian military outposts.  Turkey also fired rockets into Syria, with at least one missile landing in a residential neighborhood, killing civilians.

Syrian–Turkish relations have long been strained. Turkey shares its longest common border with Syria; various geographic and historical links also tie the two neighboring states together.

This friction has been due to disputes including the self annexation of the Hatay Province to Turkey in 1939, water disputes resulting from the Southeastern Anatolia Project, and Syria's support for the Kurdistan Worker's Party (abbreviated as PKK) and Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (abbreviated as ASALA) which have been recognized as a terrorist organization by NATO, EU, and many other countries. Relations improved greatly after October 1998, when PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan was expelled by Syrian authorities. However, the Syrian civil war has once again strained relations between the two countries, leading to the suspension of diplomatic contact. A serious incident occurred with the Syrian downing of a Turkish military training flight in June 2012, resulting in Turkey calling an emergency meeting of NATO.

Syria normally maintains an embassy in Ankara and two consulates–general in Istanbul and Gaziantep. Turkey has an embassy in Damascus and a consulate–general in Aleppo. Diplomatic relations has been severed due to the Syrian civil war.

ISRAEL v. IRAN

This situation is well-known to the world and it is quite likely that this - not Ukraine - will be the flash that sets off a worldwide explosion.  Israel is convinced that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.  Israel believes this is an existential threat, even though Israel itself has nuclear weapons.  The Israelis have made clear they do not believe the Iranian assurances that they are not and will not develop nuclear weapons and the Israelis are intent on attacking sites in Iran where they believe nuclear weapons are being developed.

The US has made clear that negotiation is the way to handle this, but Israel has steadfastly maintained that they will attack if they do not feel the negotiated agreement is iron clad.  Just this week, the Israeli government confirmed it has set aside about $2.8 Billion for war with Iran!

What makes this very worrisome is a strange occurrence earlier this week wherein every Israeli embassy worldwide was suddenly closed, without warning, on the claim there was some type of labor dispute with union workers.  This excuse seems absurd on its face.  Some speculate the real reason for the closure is that Israel is planning a strike against Iran and that strike will be a nuclear first-strike!

Many believe such an attack is the only way that tiny little Israel could hope to defeat Iran and its 75 million people.  Such an act would undoubtedly cause worldwide revulsion and make all Israeli embassies instant targets.  If, however, they are all closed and empty, it wouldn't make a difference to Israel.  So this is the situation to watch closely.

NORTH KOREA v. SOUTH KOREA

This perpetual hot-spot will likely erupt into war because North Korean leader Kim Jung Un is insane.  Throughout the Ukrainian crisis, he;'s been conducting missile launches, all in violation of UN mandates.  Most of the world sees this as his effort to get attention and it is frustrating him to no end that no one seems to care about him.

When you have a leader who is insane, he is apt to react very badly when ignored.  So if hostilities break out in Ukraine and/or between China and Japan, look for Kim Jung Un to invade South Korea because he will be confident the US cannot meet its Treaty obligations to protect them, and Japan, and Taiwan and NATO members.

China could also utilize North Korea to distract the US from its Treaty obligations; perhaps telling the North to attack the South prior to China taking aim at Taiwan.  Either way, this hot-spot will likely erupt into war when all hell breaks loose.

PAKISTAN v. INDIA

This long simmering hot spot may or may not erupt, but it is likely if all hell breaks loose.  The trouble with these two is they are both very likely to go nuclear from the start.  As such, this aspect of World War 3 will be very short-lived.

For those of you who have been more interested in Malaysian Airlines flight MH370; or more involved with your TV shows and work, this is some of the stuff that has been developing around the world and unless you start paying very close attention, it is likely to sneak up on you and kick you in the ass very soon.